Record-high yields and steady demand have played a major role in keeping fuel and grain commodity prices where they are today, CattleFax analyst Troy Bockelmann told attendees at the U.S. National Cattlemen’s Association (NCBA) Annual Convention and Tradeshow in Nashville, Tennessee.
Corn
As predicted last year, corn stocks-to-use are hovering around 13.6%. Acres planted in 2025 totaled almost 99 million acres, the largest corn acreage recorded since 1936. The harvested percentage of acres also increased, the second-largest on record, and yield came out to 186.5 bushels per acre, a seven-bushel increase from the previous record high.
Demand from many sectors of the corn market has helped this substantial corn supply find a home. Corn used for ethanol is, as Bockelmann says, a mature market, but there was some steady growth there.
Exports saw some significant growth. Corn exports reached more than 3 billion bushels this, year, the first time in history. There was steady growth in established markets like Mexico and Colombia, with lighter markets like Japan, China and the European Union (EU) buying higher than normal quantities. “We're sitting at 3.2 billion bushels [of exports],” Bockelmann said. “A lot of that has to do with the timing of our increase of production relative to global production and consumption.” The U.S. produced 33% of the global corn production, up roughly 2% from the five-year average.
Bockelmann predicted that U.S. corn acres would go down by about 3 million acres in 2026, since supplies are high and some of that cropland is going to need rotated with soybeans. He predicted that exports to Mexico would likely decrease if or when the U.S.-Mexican border opens, and exports should stay strong in 2026.
Soybeans
For other major crops, soybean acres are likely to increase by 2.5 million acres. Soybeans also produced a record-high yield of about 53 bushels per acre.
The major headwind with soybeans is exports. China has agreed to purchase 440 million bushels of U.S. soybeans in the current marketing year and 900 million soybeans in the following market year, but given China’s history of flaking on purchase promises, there is some uncertainty to navigate. “The soybean market has felt that weight of lack of export demand,” Bockelmann says. “Is China going to buy 900 million bushels next year? That's still to be determined. But looking at the global picture, I would expect to see a big increase in soybean exports.” Brazil continues to lead global soybean production and has increased their soybean production by about 2 billion bushels.
Energy and fuel
Oil and natural gas prices have been historically tied to more geopolitical issues rather than supply and demand, but even with those elements taken into consideration, there should be relative stability across all energy markets. “Even though we have all the geopolitics around oil, we're still producing more than we're consuming, and that's going to keep a little bit of pressure on oil prices,” Bockelmann said. He also shared the following price projections:
WTI crude oil – 2025 year-to-date average: $66.63 per barrel
- 2026 forecast average: $62 per barrel
- Range: $48-$72 per barrel
Retail gasoline – 2025 year-to-date average: $3.25 per gallon
- 2026 forecast average: $3.15 per gallon
- Range: $2.90-$3.60 per gallon
Retail diesel – 2025 year-to-date average: $3.65 per gallon
- 2026 forecast average: $3.65 per gallon
- Range: $3.45-$4.10 per gallon
Natural gas - 2025 year-to-date average: $3.43 per million Btu (mmBtu)
- 2026 forecast average: $3.70 per mmBtu
- Range: $2.80-$5.25 per mmBtu
