The February Feed Outlook report shows this month’s global coarse grains trade forecasts for both the 2024-25 and 2025-26 trade year are made on the observed pace of shipments and supply adjustments. The forecast for global sorghum trade is unchanged from last month. Cuts to Mexico and Japan’s sorghum imports are offset by a higher forecast for the European Union (EU). Argentina’s 2025-26 barley exports are raised on expectations for a record-high barley crop. Port loadings data for Russia support a 300,000 metric ton increase for new-crop barley exports. Corn exports for Brazil are lifted for 2024-25 and 2025-26, on abundant corn supplies. U.S. corn exports for the 2025-26 trade year continue to exceed expectations. Inspections data provide support for a 2 million metric ton increase in new-crop corn exports for the U.S.
This month, 2025-26 marketing year U.S. corn exports are raised 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion – elevating the forecast further into record-setting territory. The adjustment was made based on USDA Foreign Agricultural Service export sales and inspection data (through Jan. 29, 2026) that reveal the still-strong pace of corn shipments and continued firmness in foreign demand for U.S.-grown corn. Based on U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census data through November, corn exports for the first quarter of 2025-26 (September 2025 through November 2025) are running approximately 60% ahead of the same period a year prior. Through November, the U.S. exported 821.4 million bushels of corn, compared to about 517.2 million through the first three months of the 2024-25 marketing year. Corn exports to traditional trade partners exceeded last year’s pace, in many cases. For example, U.S. corn shipments to Japan are more than twice those of the same period a year earlier. U.S. corn shipments to South Korea show a multifold increase, as do shipments to the EU. Notably, similar to 2024-25, U.S. corn sales to China have remained essentially zero.
This month, global coarse grain production is largely unchanged. The majority of global coarse grains – up to nearly 90% – are grown in the Northern Hemisphere, where the production cycle typically starts in spring ahead of harvest in the fall. Updates at this stage in the marketing year are typically made on the basis of newly released and/or revised official data. Data published this month by FranceAgriMer – a state agency operating under France’s Ministry of Agriculture – support a slight, 0.2 million metric ton increase for EU corn production. The 2025-26 corn crop for Mexico is trimmed 0.3 million metric tons from the prior forecast to 25.7 million metric tons. Area harvested for Mexico is lowered 100,000 hectares, on the basis of data released this month indicating higher-than-normal failed acres of winter corn.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from February.
