The outlook for beef production in 2027 is forecast at 25.31 billion pounds, a 0.9% decline from 2026. A slight decline in production next year is based on fewer cattle slaughtered that is only partially offset by heavier anticipated carcass weights.

Overall, the 2026 beef production forecast is lowered to 25.79 billion pounds, only 20 million pounds below last month’s projection. Compared to last month’s expectations, the pace of steer and heifer slaughter was slower in March.

This month’s outlook for 2026 beef production is down 110 million pounds from last month to 25.81 billion pounds. This is the result of a slower than previously anticipated pace of cattle slaughter in February and early March that is partially offset by heavier than previously expected carcass weights. The projection remains about 1% below 2025 levels and 9% below the record high set in 2022.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service released its semiannual Cattle report on Jan. 30. The total of all cattle and calves on Jan. 1, 2026, was estimated at 86.155 million head, a year-over-year decline of 316,900 head, or 0.4%.

Based on preliminary slaughter data for the month of December, the forecast for fourth-quarter 2025 beef production is raised 50 million pounds from last month. The change reflects a marginal increase in fed cattle and cow slaughter that more than offsets a decline in bull slaughter from last month’s forecast.