The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Jan. 10.
Milk production, prices
The milk production forecast for 2024 is lowered from last month, with lower milk cow inventories and lower expected milk per cow based on the most recent Milk Production report. The 2025 production forecast is also lowered due to slower growth in output per cow. USDA’s Cattle report, to be released on Jan. 31, will provide an indication of producer intentions for retaining dairy heifers for addition to the milking herd.
- At 225.8 billion pounds, the 2024 production estimate was lowered 500 million pounds from last month’s report and would be 600 million pounds less than the 2023 total of 226.4 billion pounds.
For 2024, prices for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey were adjusted to reflect reported prices. As a result, the Class III milk price is now forecast at $18.89 per hundredweight (cwt), and the Class IV price is unchanged at $20.75 per cwt. The all-milk price forecast is lowered a nickel to $22.60 per cwt.
- In its forecast for 2025, the USDA estimated milk production at 227.2 billion pounds, lowered 800 million pounds from last month’s report.
For 2025, prices for cheese, butter, NDM and whey are all expected to be higher due to less milk production and supportive demand. As a result, Class III milk price is raised with higher whey and cheese prices at $19.70 per cwt, and the Class IV prices are also raised due to higher butter and NDM price forecasts at $20.80 cwt. The 2025 all-milk price is raised 50 cents to $23.05 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2025, the beef production forecast is raised on an increase in steer and heifer slaughter due to higher placements expected during the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as higher dressed weights. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released Jan. 31, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2025 as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for addition to the breeding herd.
Fed cattle price forecasts were raised on recent prices and continued strong demand for cattle and beef. The 2024 average price is projected to be $187.12 per cwt, with prices averaging $189.75 per cwt in the fourth quarter. If realized, the 2024 average would be up about $12.25 from the 2023 average of $175.54 per cwt. The 2025 average is now forecast at $196 per cwt, with highest prices in the fourth quarter of the year.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE and Crop Production reports provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: This month’s WASDE 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook called for lower production, feed and residual use, exports and ending stocks.
Corn production is estimated at 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million as a 3.8 bushel-per-acre cut in yield to 179.3 bushels is partially offset by a 0.2 million acre increase in harvested area. Total corn use is down 75 million bushels to 15.1 billion. Feed and residual use is reduced 50 million bushels to 5.8 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report.
At $4.25 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was raised 15 cents from the December forecast but is down 30 cents from the 2023-24 average of $4.55 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2024-25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections were slightly changed.
Soybean production is estimated at 4.4 billion bushels, down 95 million led by decreases for Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa and Ohio. Harvested area is estimated at 86.1 million acres, down 0.2 million. Yield is estimated at 50.7 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel.
The 2024-25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month and down $2.20 from the average price of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24. Projected soybean meal prices were raised $10 at $310 per short ton, down about $75 from the 2023-24 average of $385 per ton and $142 less than the 2022-23 average of $452 per ton.
- Cottonseed: As a predictor of cottonseed availability, cotton production is raised to 14.34 million 480-pound bales, as the national all-cotton yield estimate is raised 44 pounds to 836 pounds per harvested acre, reflecting a larger crop and lower harvested area.
The USDA’s 2024 annual Crop Production report adjusted the cottonseed harvest to 4.401 million tons, up slightly from last month’s estimate but up about 21% from 2023. November U.S. cottonseed prices averaged $221 per ton, down $2 from October and $6 per ton less than November 2023.
Alfalfa and other hay
The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $235 per ton in November, while alfalfa hay prices averaged $165 per ton, and prices for other hay averaged $147 per ton.
All hay stored on U.S. farms as of Dec. 1, 2024, totaled 81.5 million tons, up 6% from Dec. 1, 2023. Disappearance from May 1, 2024 – Dec. 1, 2024, totaled 61.9 million tons, up 10% from the same period in 2023.
The USDA’s 2024 annual Crop Production report provided harvest summaries on a number of hay and forage categories.
Production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures of dry hay in 2024 was estimated at 49.8 million tons, up slightly from the 2023 total. Harvested area, at 14.6 million acres, is down 6% from 2023. Average yield estimated at 3.41 tons per acre, is up 0.22 ton from 2023.
Production of all other dry hay in 2024 totaled 72.6 million tons, up 6% from the 2023 total. Harvested area, at 34.8 million acres, is down 6% from 2023. Average yield was estimated at a record high 2.09 tons per acre, up 0.24 ton from 2023.
In 2024, 17 states were included in the USDA forage estimation program, which measures annual production of forage crops. Haylage and greenchop production was converted to 13% moisture and combined with dry hay production to derive the total forage production.
The total 2024 all haylage and greenchop production was 28.5 million tons, of which 15.9 million tons were from alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures. The 17-state total for all forage production was 81.7 million tons. Of this total, 39.2 million tons were produced from alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures.
Record-low alfalfa haylage harvested acres were estimated for the U.S. as well as California, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Wisconsin. Record-high alfalfa haylage yields were estimated in Ohio, Nebraska, Texas and Washington. Record-low alfalfa forage harvested acres were estimated in Idaho, Michigan, Vermont and Washington.
Record-low other haylage production was estimated in South Dakota, while record highs were estimated for the U.S. as well as Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska and Texas.
Record-low other haylage harvested acres were estimated in South Dakota, while record highs were estimated in Michigan, Minnesota and Texas. Record-high other haylage yields were estimated in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Texas. Record-low other hay forage productions were estimated in Michigan and Ohio, while a record high was estimated in Texas. Record-low other forage harvested acres were estimated in Illinois, Kansas, Missouri and Ohio.
Looking ahead to potential 2025 harvest, 2024 new seedings of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures were estimated at 1.85 million acres, up 6% from 2023. New seedings of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures are normally harvested for the first time in the year following planting.
