The tariffs on beef proposed by President Donald Trump have added volatility and uncertainty to the beef industry. While the national beef herd is at its smallest size in over 50 years, demand for beef is good and prices are regularly breaking record highs. Enter the tariffs.
On April 2, Trump released a lengthy list of "reciprocal" tariffs on imports coming from 180 trading partners into the U.S., including 34% more tariffs on China, bringing the total tariff percentage on that country to 54% since Trump took office in January. The list included a 10% baseline tariff on each country. Other nations included Japan (24%), Taiwan (32%), and the European Union (20%). Among nations that have routinely shipped frozen beef imports to the U.S., tariffs were placed on Australia, Brazil, New Zealand and Chile, all earning the 10% tariff tag.
Adam Murray, a beef extension specialist with Cornell University, says that the imports and exports that occur in the beef industry serve several useful purposes.
“We’re producing a lot of higher-quality beef,” says Murray, explaining that the fatter U.S. carcasses mean that there is a significant amount of fat trimmings. “To upcycle that white fat, we import a lot of lean beef.” That lean, relatively cheap imported beef is mixed with the fat trimmings, making the most of the whole animal and helping meet the need for affordable ground beef.
In a way, ground beef holds a singular role in the beef industry. “Fifty percent of the beef we consume in America is ground beef,” says Murray. Although ground beef can certainly be produced without imports, it’s likely that it would be harder to get as much value out of each animal.
Oklahoma State University Agricultural Economist Derrell Peel recognizes that any impact on the beef industry will be determined by the details of potential tariffs, but also notes that the details are currently unknown.
“Uncertainty is not good for markets,” says Peel. “In the short run, it’s just a lot of chaos.”
The American, Canadian and Mexican beef sectors are highly intertwined. Additionally, thousands of tons of beef are imported into and exported from the U.S. every year.
“We’ve developed a very integrated cattle and beef market,” says Peel. “It’s thousands of products.”
In some cases, cuts of beef that are not considered particularly desirable in the U.S. might find a market in a place where the cuisine is more suited to that cut. Some cuts that don’t sell well might end up in Japan, for example, explains Peel.
“We add value both ways,” he says of importing and exporting.
Although potential tariffs can be viewed in a variety of ways, Peel emphasizes that the current uncertainty has some in the beef industry wondering what the next few months will bring: “Producers are trying to figure out what is going on, and no one knows.”
Ultimately, Peel believes that the effect of the tariffs will likely not be positive for the U.S. beef industry.
“In general, it’s going to be a negative impact,” he says.
Although tariffs would not stop all import and export of beef, they would likely reduce trade. There was a time in the not-too-distant past when cattle were not allowed to cross the Canada-U.S. border: When bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) – mad cow disease – was found in a cow in the U.S. in 2003, the cow had originally been imported from Canada. Adam Murray says that tariffs would not have the same sort of effect on trade as BSE. “That was a food safety thing. I have a hard time believing this will have the same impact,” says Murray.
Kelly Schmidt is CEO of the Minnesota Beef Council. He emphasizes that the U.S. often exports cuts of beef that do not have a large market in the country, citing liver, tongue and oxtail as examples. By finding an export market for things Americans generally don’t eat, more money can be garnered from the animal.
“What we’re exporting is the stuff we don’t consume,” Schmidt says. “Exports add over 400 dollars a head.
“The concern is the retaliatory tariffs,” he continues, explaining that a lot is unknown about what tariffs might actually be implemented. “We don’t know what is going to happen.”
The U.S. Meat Export Federation’s (USMEF) website states its mission is to “increase the value and profit opportunities for the U.S. beef, pork and lamb industries by enhancing demand in export markets through a coordinated and collaborative partnership of all stakeholders.” The website also states that in 2024, beef export value was over $10 billion, up 5% from the previous year.
“Our major concern is retaliation,” Joe Schuele, vice president of communications for the USMEF, says of the tariffs other countries are likely to enact in response to those instituted by the U.S. Still, he notes that the domestic market for beef is healthy. “We are fortunate to have a large and robust market here at home.”
In general, Schuele says that the export market is an important way to optimize potential for beef producers.
“Our goal is to get every part of the animal to the market that is best,” he says.
Although the volatility tariffs could bring to the marketplace are not welcome by many producers, some support the president’s actions. Notably, the trade association Ranchers-Cattlemen Action Legal Fund United Stockgrowers of America (R-CALF USA) states on its website that it supports potential tariffs as a way to stem the loss in numbers of American ranches in recent decades.
