As trade data continues to be released following the six-week government shutdown last fall, records indicate a favorable end to the 2025 year for U.S. dairy products. In November, dairy export volume rose 14% year over year in milk solid equivalent (MSE) terms, while the value of U.S. dairy exports also swelled 14% year over year to $801.7 million. This all brings year-to-date MSE volume up 3.2% compared to 2024, and total U.S. dairy export value at $8.82 billion.
Sufficient supply, international demand and advantageous pricing leaned in favor of the U.S. dairy industry for the second half of the year, with the complete year’s data not yet available. The U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) anticipates year-end values nearing 2022’s record of $9.66 billion with December 2025 data released in the coming weeks, according to their latest report.
Cheese, butterfat shine in November
Global cheese demand whirred through November with U.S. suppliers responding. Year-over-year cheese export volume surged 28% to 50,775 metric tons, surpassing 50,000 metric tons for the seventh consecutive month. “… it bears repeating: U.S. cheese exports had never crossed 50,000 [metric tons] in a single month before 2025,” states the USDEC report.
Product was shipped to regular buyers across a variety of regions, including Mexico as a leading destination but also South Korea, which is positioned to set a record for U.S. cheese purchases in 2025. In November, total cheese imports into South Korea were up 3,938 metric tons with 93% of that volume coming from U.S. suppliers – a reflection of the nation’s growing appetite for cheese and the value of South Korea as a key destination for U.S. product.
Butterfat also had a remarkable month with shipments soaring nearly threefold (up 8,079 metric tons) in November 2025 compared to the same month a year prior. Total exports for the product were 15,308 metric tons, the highest volume recorded in a single month. While our neighbors to the North remained the top destination for the U.S. product, Middle East/North Africa (MENA) positioned itself as second with shipments surpassing 4,000 metric tons in November. USDEC notes the month’s strong performance was largely driven by demand from Bahrain and Saudi Arabia because of attractive pricing and familiarity with U.S. butter.
NEXT-assisted export sales surpass 19 million pounds
In January, National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) Export & Trade (NEXT) member cooperatives secured 82 contracts, representing 19.3 million pounds of product in the NEXT-assisted sales for 2026. Those products will go to 22 countries throughout Asia, Oceania, MENA, South America, Central America, the Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa in the months ahead.
NEXT was launched in mid-2025 as a means to move domestic dairy products overseas and help overcome the dairy industry’s trade disadvantages, replacing the long-standing Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) program. In NEXT’s inaugural year, assisted sales totaled more than 141.5 million pounds of product with 669 bids accepted for product to ship to 33 countries.
Dairy heifer, embryo sales up from October 2025
Despite extremely low levels of U.S. dairy replacement exports in 2025, November provided the greatest animal unit sales in nine months. Total replacements were 297 animal units, up from 117 in October 2025, bringing the year-to-date value to 1,393. The majority of heifer exports were shipped to North American trading partners, Mexico (129) and Canada (119). Brazil also participated in purchasing U.S. dairy replacement heifers in November, purchasing 49 animal units.
U.S. dairy embryo exports rose 41% in November 2025 from the month prior. Sales to the United Kingdom (378 units) and Japan (121 units) carried the month’s exports to a total of 508 units. Australia also contributed with nine. Year-to-date sales are at 4,678 units, about 3,000 less than the same time period in 2024.
Hay exports slip in November
Total sales of U.S. dairy-quality alfalfa hay exports were down 6% in November to 151,290 metric tons. Despite increased exports to top purchasers China and Japan, Saudi Arabia’s 34% month-over-month decline in U.S. dairy-quality alfalfa hay imports contributed to the month’s value. Exports year to date are sitting at 1.59 million metric tons, about 9 million less than November 2024.
Other hay exports grew modestly by 9% month over month. Total monthly exports were at 83,729 metric tons – up from 77,077 metric tons in October 2025 – bringing year-to-date exports to 867,233 metric tons. Major purchasers of the U.S. product were Japan (463,357 metric tons, down 9%), South Korea (222,094 metric tons, up 30%) and Taiwan (88,538 metric tons, up 36%).
Ag trade deficit continues
November’s U.S. agricultural trade balance deficit was at $553 million. Exports for the month were reported at $15.041 billion and imports at $15.595 billion according to the Department of Commerce/Census Bureau.
The fiscal year-to-date (Oct. 1, 2025, to Sept. 30, 2026) balance is at a deficit of $977 million.
