The U.S. beef herd size periodically cycles through expansion and contraction, with about a 10-year cycle. This cycle is largely due to the time it takes to build because of cattle biology. 

The USDA NASS Cattle on Feed report for January was released Jan. 24. My take on the report is that it was reasonably neutral. Placements, marketings and on-feed numbers were all well within pre-report estimate ranges and were, in fact, very close to pre-report averages.

The latest monthly Cattle on Feed report showed the Jan. 1 inventory in feedlots (over 1,000 head) at 11.958 million head, 102.3% of one year ago. This is the largest January on-feed total since 2008.

The 2019 fourth-quarter beef production forecast was raised by 100 million pounds from the previous month to nearly 7 billion pounds. This raised the forecast for annual production to 27.1 billion pounds.

The ongoing wildfires in Australia represent the latest in nearly a decade of environmental challenges the country has faced. This has prompted questions about the impact of the fires on Australian cattle and beef production and trade. This article was compiled from several Australian reports and other media and data sources.

The 2019 beef production forecast was raised by 88 million pounds from the previous month to 27 billion pounds. The increase was based on a faster-than-expected pace of fed cattle slaughter and greater expected cow slaughter.

The 2019 beef production forecast was reduced by 5 million pounds from the previous month but remains at a rounded 26.9 billion pounds. The reduction was based on a slower-than-expected pace of fed cattle slaughter that was partially offset by greater expected cow slaughter and slightly higher expected cattle dressed weights.

On Aug. 9, a fire damaged Tyson Foods’ Holcomb, Kansas, beef processing plant, rendering it inoperable through 2019, according to the company. This plant was estimated to have a capacity equivalent to about 5% to 6% of fed cattle slaughtered weekly.

In July, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the midyear cattle report, which provided a snapshot of U.S. cattle inventory as well as a glimpse into cow and calf producers’ intentions for retaining heifers.

Total cattle imports in July were down 4.1%, with year-to-date total cattle imports up 14.7% year over year for the January through July period. Cattle imports in 2018 totaled 1.9 million head, including 66.8% Mexican cattle and 33.2% from Canada.