The outlook for beef production in 2027 is forecast at 25.31 billion pounds, a 0.9% decline from 2026. A slight decline in production next year is based on fewer cattle slaughtered that is only partially offset by heavier anticipated carcass weights.

Overall, the 2026 beef production forecast is lowered to 25.79 billion pounds, only 20 million pounds below last month’s projection. Compared to last month’s expectations, the pace of steer and heifer slaughter was slower in March.

This month’s outlook for 2026 beef production is down 110 million pounds from last month to 25.81 billion pounds. This is the result of a slower than previously anticipated pace of cattle slaughter in February and early March that is partially offset by heavier than previously expected carcass weights. The projection remains about 1% below 2025 levels and 9% below the record high set in 2022.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service released its semiannual Cattle report on Jan. 30. The total of all cattle and calves on Jan. 1, 2026, was estimated at 86.155 million head, a year-over-year decline of 316,900 head, or 0.4%.

Based on preliminary slaughter data for the month of December, the forecast for fourth-quarter 2025 beef production is raised 50 million pounds from last month. The change reflects a marginal increase in fed cattle and cow slaughter that more than offsets a decline in bull slaughter from last month’s forecast.

Starting in late July and throughout August, weekly cattle slaughter slowed seasonally but to levels that were the lowest since 2015. Adjusting for one fewer slaughter days in 2025, August saw a 10% decline in cattle slaughter, the largest year-over-year decline for any month in 2025.

On July 25, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its biannual Cattle report. The previous July edition of the report was released in 2023, as the July Cattle report was not conducted in 2024. According to the report, on July 1, 2025, all cattle and calves were estimated at 94.2 million head, down 1.2 million head, or 1.3%, from July 1, 2023.

On June 30, 2025, the USDA announced a plan to implement a phased reopening of the southern border ports for the import of live cattle from Mexico, beginning with the border crossing at Douglas, Arizona, on July 7. However, on July 9, Mexico announced it had detected New World screwworm in Veracruz – 160 miles north of the current sterile fly dispersal grid.

Compared to last month, minor adjustments are made to the 2025 and 2026 production forecasts, with no major changes to industry fundamentals. The changes center on updates from current slaughter data, reducing expected cow slaughter, temporal changes to fed cattle marketings and lifting anticipated carcass weights.