Douglas, an emeritus professor of meteorology from Creighton University, and 36-year weather consultant for CattleFax, said the developing status of a La Niña movement has been tracked for a few months.

"And as most of you know, La Niña is not good," Douglas said. "It brings back drought."

In that pattern, a cooling of sea surface temperatures through the Pacific Ocean, even from the Gulf of Alaska to California, Hawaii and off the equator, will typically lead to a drop in precipitation and “concentrates that drought back into the plains, especially the central plains of Nebraska and Kansas,” Douglas explained. “It kind of tugs it out of the eastern Corn Belt, and also doesn’t allow it to go quite as far south into Texas.”

Douglas also noted the pressure grading readings for cross-equatorial flow index – a meteorological gauge between north and south hemispheres. Pressures have been very high, Douglas said, indicating a La Niña return that is building. Some patches of warm water do exist in the western Pacific, indicating a possible El Nino comeback. But most global forecasts are still unpredictable in gauging how intense La Niña could be.

Expressing his opinion in light of the uncertainty, Douglas said the La Niña cooling has true momentum. "If I were to guess as we go into the summer, we’re likely to see La Nina still there. And La Niña kind of favors drought through the midsection of the country."

Showing a vegetation map for the U.S., Douglas said the drought has improved in areas such as the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Northern Plains, while tougher conditions are hitting the Southeast, west Texas, and the West Coast.

Looking to the summer forecast, as the cold-water pattern in the Pacific intensifies under La Niña, a corresponding pattern is seen in the Atlantic – with warmer water pulling moisture toward that coast. Such intensity doesn’t allow moisture to get into the western or central plains as it should.

Most indices that compare weather patterns over the past several years show 2013 will be a transition year between an El Niño pattern and a La Niña cluster. “Transition periods are always hard to forecast,” Douglas said. “That said, when we get into the summer forecast there’s no big high pressure in the central Pacific anymore. That’s kind of good news for South Texas – anytime there’s big high pressure in the Pacific, the south portions of the Plains start to get hot and dry. So this is a good prediction.”

Otherwise, temperatures in the western U.S. – from Arizona to the Northwest of Idaho, Oregon and Washington – are predicted to run above normal temperatures.

Elsewhere, Douglas said a repeat of severe heat is less likely in many parts of the U.S. But precipitation could remain low in the Central Plains.

Indications also show the Gulf Coast, from Florida to Texas, to expect an above normal hurricane season, which is typically wet for La Niña clusters.

Turning to the global warming concerns heard in the news, Douglas explained that the sunspot cycle is at its lowest point in 100 to 200 years. When sun spot activity is high, it creates more energy coming to the planet.

"Half of the problem over the past 100 years with this global warming phenomena has been that sunspot peaks have been pretty strong,” Douglas explained. "The last peak was about 2002. The sunspot peak was a 150 to 175 sunspots, it’s now about 50 to 75."

It typically takes two to three decades to see global cooling with this decrease in sunspots, meaning the lower activity now seen could usher in cooler temperatures in coming decades.

PHOTO:
CattleFax weather specialist Art Douglas. Staff photo.