Possibly a bigger “macro factor” would be inflation of global beef prices. Stuart said food prices have been on the rise since 2005, and population demographics are forcing the inflation upward.

That’s not going to change in the coming year, Stuart predicted, even though the global meat price index was up 21 percent, it should keep rising in 2012.

A key factor for the price surge is a drop in global beef production of 3.4 million tons over the past five years. Producers such as Brazil are focusing on their own domestic consumers and exporting less.  At the same time the world population went up 300 million people.

U.S. export expansion will continue targeting Asia, he said, due to its limited resources, rising incomes, large population and the beef deficit. But with Brazil declining its exports, that presents new opportunities as well.

“Russia, the E.U. and Middle East, those are Brazil’s key export markets,” Stuart explained. “We’re moving into their kitchen, so to speak. We’re taking some of that business.”

CattleFax forecasts show beef exports to go up 11 percent in 2012, more than broilers (up 2.4 percent) and pork (3 percent), with much of the growth driven by the Asian markets and fueled in part by a relaxing of trade barriers expected in Japan.

In regard to imports, Stuart said the demand for ground beef should attract more product into the U.S. “We have to get those supplies somewhere,” he said, noting that the price for lean grinding beef supply will stay high, as well as cull cow prices. “We’re going to have to hunt harder to keep the fast-food hamburger machine full.” 

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TOP RIGHT: CattleFax analyst Brett Stuart. Staff photo.