Digest highlights

Natzke dave
Dave Natzke
Editor / Progressive Dairy

USDA boosts 2023 milk production outlook, Class III price projected higher

The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released April 11. Compared to last month, the USDA raised the U.S. milk production estimate for 2023 slightly, but also raised Class III and all-milk price forecasts.

At 228.2 billion pounds, the 2023 production forecast was raised by 200 million pounds from last month, based on a larger cow inventory. If realized, 2023 production would be up about 1% from 2022.

For 2023, the annual average price forecasts for cheese, butter and dry whey were raised, while the projected price for nonfat dry milk was reduced.

Compared to earlier estimates, the projected 2023 Class III price was raised 70 cents to $18.25 per hundredweight (cwt), while the Class IV price forecast was reduced 20 cents to $18.10 per cwt. The projected 2023 all-milk price was raised 20 cents to $20.65 per cwt.

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  • Beef outlook: For 2023, the beef production forecast was raised from last month, with higher expected placements of cattle during the first half of the year resulting in more beef production during the second half. Projected cattle prices were lowered for the first quarter of 2023 but raised for all other quarters on continued strength in demand. Potentially affecting cull cow prices, the fed cattle price forecast for 2023 was estimated at $164.50 per cwt, up $2.50 last month’s forecast. Highest average prices were forecast for the second and fourth quarters of the year.
  • Feed price, supply forecasts. This month’s 2022-23 U.S. corn outlook forecast reductions to imports and food, seed and industrial (FSI) use, with unchanged ending stocks. At $6.60 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged from last month’s forecast but is up 60 cents (10%) from the 2021-22 average of $6 per bushel and about $2.07 (46%) more than 2020-21 average of $4.53 per bushel.

The 2022-23 U.S. soybean supply and use outlook was unchanged from last month’s report. The U.S. season-average soybean price received by producers for 2022-23 was forecast at $14.30 per bushel, up $1 from 2021-22 and $3.50 more than the 2020-21 average. The 2022-23 soybean meal price was projected at $465 per ton, also unchanged from last month’s forecast and up about $25 from the $440 per ton average in 2021-22.

Darigold joining GDT auction events

Darigold Inc. will begin offering skim milk powder (SMP) at Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction events beginning in June, with the potential to add further products at a later stage.

Darigold produces a full line of dairy-based products for retail, food service, commodity and specialty markets. The 104-year-old U.S. dairy cooperative processes about 10 billion pounds of milk annually, exporting about 40% of its production to customers in more than 30 foreign markets.

Seattle-based Darigold is constructing a $600 million production facility to expand butter and powdered milk products, and expect to process an additional 8 million pounds of milk per day when the new facility begins operations in 2024.

The GDT platform currently offers dairy products from six global companies: Fonterra (New Zealand), Dairy America (U.S.), Amul (India), Arla (Denmark), Arla Foods Ingredients (Denmark) and Polish Dairy (Poland). Auction events are held twice monthly.

President Joe Biden vetoes WOTUS disapproval resolution

As expected, President Joe Biden vetoed a resolution that would have vacated the Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule. However, on April 12, U.S. District Court Judge Daniel Hovland, in the U.S. District Court for the District of North Dakota, granted a preliminary injunction blocking the implementation of the Waters of the U.S. rule in 24 more states.

Under the terms of the Congressional Review Act, Congress could strike down a federal agency rule if a resolution of disapproval is approved by both chambers and signed by the president. With the veto, members of Congress may now attempt to override the veto, but that will require a two-thirds majority vote in both the House and Senate.

At the same time, the Waters of the U.S. rule continues to navigate the court system.

Previously, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas issued a limited injunction blocking implementation of the rule, but only in Texas and Idaho. The North Dakota decision blocks the rule in two dozen more states: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming. 

In Kentucky, the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky denied an injunction request by the state of Kentucky and the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce.

A U.S. Supreme Court decision in the case of Sackett v. EPA, urging for the preservation of state authority to regulate local waters and lands, is expected soon.

Read also: ‘Waters of the United States’ continues to make waves

House Ag Committee meetings set

The House Committee on Agriculture will host a 2023 Farm Bill listening session, April 14, 10 a.m. (Eastern time) at the Cornell Cooperative Extension of Broome County in Binghamton, New York. It can be livestreamed here.

Two other hearings have been scheduled for next week at the Longworth House Office Building in Washington, D.C.